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| " Sustaining a Regular Income From Betting"
Everyone knows that bookmakers make profits. The only way such profits can be made is through the losses of their customers. It is evident therefore that although bettors may claim to have "winning" as an objective, few can truly claim to win (in a long-term sense) in practice.
Since it is not reasonable to suppose that the betting public, as a whole, is irrational, one can conclude that betting, by-and-large for most people, is a recreational activity, carried on for the excitement, entertainment, suspense, feeling of participation in the sporting event, or some other subjective gain. The difference between the money staked by the bettor and the money returned in winnings - that is to say, the cost of betting - is regarded by the bettor (albeit not necessarily consciously) as a payment for the enjoyment gained from the betting experience.
However, notwithstanding these subjective criteria, the objective criterion of hoped-for gain is both a nominal goal, even for recreational bettors, and an actual goal for a smaller though sizeable group of bettors who strive, in ways realistic or unrealistic, to turn betting into a gainful form of labour!
Essentially, there are two ways in which real gain can be pursued through the medium of horse racing or other sports betting. The first is through bets with a high winnings-to-stakes ratio, that is to say accumulators or multiple bets at very long, possibly astronomical, odds. Sums of up to £1 million can be won in this way, and a person lucky enough to scoop such a payout (provided he does not thereafter squander his winnings in an extravagant betting spree) is likely to truly be able to claim that his betting has paid off. Even a person whose betting consists of, say, just £1 wagered every weekend on a long-odds accumulator for 30 years has a betting balance sheet in the black rather than red if ever he succeeds in landing odds of, say, a mere 2,000-1!
The second way in which the goal of gain can be pursued is by trying to turn betting into a "favourable" game. A favourable game exists where the payout-odds on offer for a given outcome underestimate its likelihood of occurring.
"Heads" in a coin-spinning game is an evens (1-1) chance. If a benefactor were willing to pay odds of 6-5 every time "heads" was correctly called, a game favourable to the caller would exist. Naturally, in the real world of betting, such favourable odds or "overlays" are not going to be so transparently obvious!
Given that the betting industry has its own profits - not those of its customers - to consider, it is only to be expected that bookmakers should strive to avoid inadvertentrly offering such overlays. However, by virtue of its nature, volume and sheer complexity, bookmaker betting is bound to throw up, from time to time, odds favourable to the bettor. Any person in a position to recognise such value and who limits his bets solely to those occasions is able, in effect, to turn betting with a bookmaker into a favourable game - and hence - a profitable enterprise.
However, the bettor can only find favourable betting opportunities if he possesses sufficient ability to weigh the chances of the contenders and make reliable comparisons with the odds on offer. There are many reasons why payout-odds, on occasions, do not correspond with a contender's chance, but to be able to recognise such differences requires a mind educated in the sport in question and in the abilities of its players. Though, this would not be necessary if the bettor diligently follows a tried-and-tested system that has been devised by an expert.
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In the absence of a scientifically proven system, the bettor's own brain is probably his greatest ally when attempting to predict the winner of a given race. The brain is a natural opinion-forming machine which tends to perform qualitatively in proportion to the amount and soundness of relevant information made available to it. It does not, of course, generate its opinions in numbers which can be directly compared with prices but, with practice, it is rapidly capable of learning to calibrate different strengths of belief against odds on offer. However, the resoning machinery of the brain does have an opponent - emotional bias (which stems from a separate biological system) - which in betting matters, must necessarily be resisted. When a team, jockey, player or whatever gives the would-be bettor a "warm feeling", emotion is at work. Bettors should be on their guard and forbear from betting on the basis of any such impulse. It has to be said, some people so habitually run on their emotions in everything they do, this is a lesson they are for ever unable to learn. That actually works in favour of the value-seeking bettor: whenever a tide of emotional feeling for a given contender engulfs the betting market, favourable odds are created for a more able contender who does not so arouse public passion!
In addition to being able to form sound judgements, free of bias, about the chances of contenders, the better needs a basic understanding of certain arithmetical and mathematical issues. For example, be able to recognise or work out bookmakers' overall profit margins, since the bettor is more likely to experience a productive betting campaign if, at the outset, he concentrates on events where the "over-round" is low. Over-round is a term signifying that a set of odds for an event contains an element of potential profit for the bookmaker. This is explained in more detail below.
" Over-Round"
Imagine a hypothetical race between two horses - Alpha and Beta. No matter what their relative chances, a profit is assured to the bookmaker if he can find two people - one willing to back Alpha at 4/5, and another to back Beta at 4/5, for identical stakes, say £500 on each side. Whichever horse wins, the bookmaker collects £500 in stake money but only has to pay out £400 in winnings, a gain of £100 - irrespective of the victor or how the race is run. Now, let us bring this example closer to the real world by imagining that, instead of one backer for each horse, there are 60 backers for Alpha and 40 for Beta - all wanting to stake £100 each. Then bookmaker meets this contingency by laying differential odds - making Alpha 1-2, reflecting the greater demand, and Beta 5-4. If Alpha wins, the bookmaker pays out £3,000 in winnings and keeps £4000 in stake money, pocket £1,000 profit. If Beta wins, the bookmaker pays out £5,000 in winnings and keeps £6,000 stake money, again a profit of £1,000.
Real betting situations are made vastly more complicated by larger fields, many more bettors, varying stakes and, in the case of racecourse betting, the small amount of time available for trading bets. Such constraints lead to all kinds of imperfections - some winners being more profitable than others, some races leaving the bookmaker out of pocket - but in the long term such imperfections even out. So long as the overall set of odds contains a margin of profit and the bookmaker makes a reasonable stab at guessing the proportions in which the public will wish to bet on the different contenders, the bookmaker is assured a long term gain irrespective of which runner wins and its true odds.
Now, here's the important part. Opportunities for the bettor to make a gain from betting lie in the fact that the odds laid by the bookmaker for any one particular runner need not always be a reflection of its chance (or "probability"). The main criterion which determines how the odds are shared out among the runners is the demand for bets. Whenever the "crowd" and the form-book part company, an opportunity for a value bet may appear. A value bet is one in which the price on offer underestimates the runner's actual chance of winning.
To calculate the amount of potential profit in a set of bookmaker's odds, each odds in the set must be translated into its percentage equivalent. On such a scale, 0 equals "no chance at all" and 100 equals "certainty". All the other chances lie between, including an "even" chance which occupies the mid-point of 50. A percentage from odds is found thus: (100/(odds+1)). Odds from percentage: ((100/percentage)-1).
If the odds were fair, the total of the percentages would be 100 exactly. But, in practice, the total will be found to exceed 100. The excess is called "over-round". The greater the excess, the greater the margin of potential profit for the bookmaker.
The following are the odds and equivalent percentage figures for a greyhound race at Hackney:
Trap 1..........2-1..........33%
Trap 2..........6-1..........14%
Trap 3..........5-1..........17%
Trap 4..........6-1..........14%
Trap 5..........6-1..........14%
Trap 6..........3-1..........25%
TOTAL......................117%
In this case, the over-round is 17, giving the bookmaker a potential profit of 14.5% on turnover (17/117ths), providing he is able to lay all the runners in proportion to the percentages. Should the percentages sum to less than 100, the book is "under-round" and weighted in favour of the betting public. Occasionally, though infrequently, this actually occurs.
The better who is in the habit of checking over-round will soon discover how much it varies from event to event. The knowledge can be used to advantage. By limiting bets to those occasions where the over-round is less than average, the bettor, from this one factor alone, can expect to obtain a much better return from his betting.
Similarly, in order for a bettor to improve his chances of a higher return, there are certain mathematical axioms that must necessarily be heeded. Some may be difficult for a non-mathematically inclined person to understand. This need not in itself matter, so long as the principle is accepted and followed. Mathematical axioms for unfavourable games may be different for favourable games, often going into reverse. For example, if a bettor makes an accumulative bet out of odds each of which is individually unfavourable, the margin in favour of the bookmaker multiplies, so that the bettor so wagering loses his funds at a faster rate. However, if a bettor's accumulative bet is made up of favourable odds (ie overlays), the margin in the bettor's favour multiplies to his own advantage and he thereby wins at a faster rate.
While a bettor's expectations, in terms of gain, should not be too great, a long-term profit is mathematically attainable, even off-course, but it involves harnessing the troika of judgement, personal psychology and mathematical wisdom.
For readers committed to achieving a long-term gain from sports betting, the following is a summary of principles based on the theory of betting as presented above.
The Ten Golden Rules of Sports Betting: (1) Hone expertise by specialising in one or two chosen sports only (such as horse racing and greyhound racing). (2) Be selective. Do not expect a betting opportunity from every contest. It is to be expected that there should be more non-betting than betting occasions. (3) Learn the finer points of your chosen sport from close observation of past results. (4) Choose a sport that provides a good deal of relavant data that you can use to formulate a winning system. (5) Be properly informed with up-to-date news and information before making a wager. In the case of sports betting, read the specialised press. (6) Assimilate expert opinion, but always from more than one viewpoint, preferrably several. (7) Rid the mind of emotional bias. (8) Bet only if the odds appear favourable. (9) Bet as close as reasonably possible to the start of the contest, in order to assimilate the latest information. (10) Bet the smallest affordable stake that is sufficient to motivate and sustain interest, and bet as often as good opportunities allow. It is a dangerous fallacy to believe that a better return can be obtained from betting by increasing the sums staked. Increasing the amount risked introduces stress to the betting situation which, in turn, impairs the bettor's judgement, while at the same time increasing the mathematical likelihood of "ruin". The bettor who wants to make a real gain from betting, must settle for a modest one!
Betting Systems
There are numerous betting systems already in existence that have proven to be extremely effective over the long-term, and many of these systems have been in use for decades by professional gamblers. However, in my experience of racecourse betting, the most effective systems are those that are based on sound mathematical and statistical logic. There will never be a system that could successfully pick out the winner of every single race. Nor could there ever be a system that could obtain a 100% winning success rate of all the selections that it makes. Even a long-term winning success rate of 75% is very rare indeed (that's a ratio of 3 winners from every 4 selections). If you are fortunate to have such a system, you are virtually guranteed an income for life - even if each winning selection was an odds-on favourite.
An excellent resource for the very best horse racing systems is Brian Lyndhurst's book - The Best Horseracing Systems Ever Devised. Brian Lyndhurst is a statistician who has compiled several horse racing systems that are each capable of producing a winning success rate of over 75%. An electronic (e-book) version of this book can be downloaded to your computer immediately from the eMedia Direct website. For further info on these horseracing systems click here. If you prefer football pools betting, you can download an excellent book by Stanley Keeble containing all of the best football pools systems ever devised, find out more by clicking here.
If your aim is to obtain a regular income from the betting industry, I sincerely hope that this report has provided you with some insight into the methods that can be used to achieve your aim.
David Bennett
Racecourse Journalist |
